Bond market: real estate policy is relaxed, social integration is significantly lower than expected

Market review and analysis

Review of the primary market

Last week, the issuance of treasury bonds, local bonds and policy financial bonds in the primary market was 221.5 billion, 169.5 billion and 163 billion respectively, with net financing of 131.5 billion, 105.1 billion and 163 billion respectively. A total of 137credit bonds were issued, with a total size of 129.2 billion and a net financing of-30.8 billion. No new convertible bonds will be issued for the time being.

Review of the secondary market

Last week, interest rate bonds returned to volatility and credit spreads narrowed. The main influencing factors include: real estate policy, government debt supply, capital side, stock and debt seesaw, macro data and so on.

Liquidity tracking

Last week, the net return of the open market was 440 billion, and liquidity was loose at the beginning of the month. Follow the operation of MLF this week, a total of 125 billion expires.

Policy and fundamentals

Announced last weekPennslammer3reelApril's exports were basically in line with expectations, CPI was higher than expected, and social integration was significantly lower than expected. From the perspective of high-frequency data: the performance of real estate sales at the beginning of the month was average, the prices of major goods priced by domestic demand rose generally, and the physical workload of the market or pre-pricing infrastructure improved.

overseas market

Economies such as Europe and Britain have sent dovish signals that initial data show signs of weakness in the US labour market. Finally, the 10-year U.S. debt closed at 4.Pennslammer3reel.50%, the same as the week before last.

The Prospect of Bond Market Strategy

It has been mentioned many times that the ultra-long-term special treasury bond project is being declared, and the market expects that the supply pressure of government debt in May may still be manageable. On the other hand, Hangzhou Xi'an announced the lifting of purchase restrictions on the same day, raising concerns about the continued relaxation of first-tier cities, but the impact of real estate policy on the bond market will ultimately be attributed to the degree of improvement in fundamentals. Overall, after four months of turbulent adjustment, the "bottom line thinking" of institutional interest rates may be stronger in the coming period of time, and changes in risk appetite may periodically disturb the trend of the bond market. but at the same time, the upward space of interest rates will also be squeezed by allocation demand and fundamental environment, and interest rates may be mainly volatile for a period of time in the future, focusing on changes in macro data, monetary policy, real estate and supply. In terms of convertible bonds, the valuation of convertible bonds has made a negative contribution in the past 24 years, which is mainly affected by the bear market thinking of equity under the weak aggregate, the game of funds after institutionalization, the impact of liquidity of micro-disk stocks to suppress the value of options and other factors. In the context of the limited risk of the bond market, the overall valuation of the convertible bond market is cost-effective, and the fault tolerance rate of the shock observation period is also high. Recently, there are frequent real estate news, considering the siphon effect in the core areas of first-tier cities, under the background of urban policy, the follow-up relaxation path still has great uncertainty, so keep paying attention.

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