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workbingo| Analysts: CPI data may not prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September
editor 2024-05-16 23:00:43
22

April inflation data released by the United States on Wednesday cooled more than expected, making U.S. stock market traders seem increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as September.

But some analysts are not convinced about the prospect of an imminent rate cut.

The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.0% month-on-month in April from Marchworkbingo.3%, slightly lower than the market estimate of 0.4%.

workbingo| Analysts: CPI data may not prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September

Weak-than-expected CPI data pushed U.S. stocks to record highs on Wednesday and sparked speculation about how soon the Federal Reserve is preparing to start cutting interest rates.

According to CME's Fed Observation tool, traders currently expect a roughly 70% chance of a U.S. interest rate cut in September. The probability of this prediction is a huge improvement compared to earlier this week.

Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management at PIMCO, said on Thursday that the latest U.S. inflation data confirmed to investors that the possibility of a near-term interest rate hike is now "off the table."

Schneider said: "workbingoI think from a more specific perspective, we have to really understand that we have celebrated lower inflation and the market has done it. But what we are thinking about is the long-term trajectory of how the Fed will respond to these data."

Schneider said: "More importantly, if you look carefully at the CPI and the PCE inflation indicator that the Fed attaches more importance to, specific sub-indicators of these data still remain relatively elastic."

"In fact, to get these core inflation numbers below 3%, we will have to see readings of 0.2% or lower for the rest of the year," he said. Now, we are still far above this level."

He added that while the latest inflation data provided some relief,"may not be possible at this time" in the context of the Fed's rapid return to close to its 2% target.

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