News summary

according to the National Bureau of Statisticscentipedearcade, China's real estate investment fell 10% year-on-year in April 2024centipedearcade.5%centipedearcade, falling house prices and sales form a negative cycle. The area of real estate for sale across the country has reached a record high, and the residential inventory to be resolved has reached 16 million square meters, requiring about 2%.centipedearcade.7 trillion. Promoting market stabilization and destocking policies requires greater financial support. At the same time, the recovery of domestic demand and consumption and exports for external demand play an important role in China's stable economic growth, but the "destocking" of real estate requires more policy support.

Newsletter text

[Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 17 showed that China's economic growth performance in April was mixed]

After He Lifeng delivered a speech at the national video conference on housing security and handover work, a regular briefing on the State Council's policy was held.

During the "bottoming" stage of the real estate market, investment shrank by 10.5% year-on-year, and house prices fell to a five-year high.

The prices of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively month-on-month, and the inventory area reached 746 million square meters, exceeding the February 2016 high.

The policy focuses on promoting "guaranteed delivery of buildings", promoting "destocking" and recycling of sold land.

Destocking and market stabilization face multiple problems such as large capital levels, differences in inventory distribution and demand, and fiscal fund balance.

It is estimated that the demand for purchasing and storage funds will reach 2.7 trillion yuan, which is different from the demand for affordable housing.

[In April, the utilization rate of industrial capacity rebounded, domestic demand and consumption continued to recover, and the industrial production and sales rate rose to 97.4%].

Exports for external demand have maintained a good momentum, providing support for China's stable economic growth.

However, pressure on the external economic and trade environment has increased, and export growth in the second half of the year faces challenges.

The main pressure on the economic downturn comes from the real estate sector, with investment growth slowing down in infrastructure and manufacturing.

[Real estate destocking needs greater policy support, and fiscal policies need to be accelerated].

Risk warnings include ineffective policies to stabilize growth, overseas economic recession exceeding expectations, and the spread of credit risks of real estate enterprises.