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Reviewing the history, the TMT market during the May-June performance window is mainly driven by policy and industrial catalysis and liquidity, and is greatly influenced by fundamentals and policies in July. (1) A-share performance window from May to June, policy and industrial catalysis and liquidity are the core factors that affect the TMT market. First, the May-June TMT market is relatively good: in 10 of the 14 years since 2010, the TMT index has had excess returns relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in May-June. Second, the domestic industrial policy of encouraging science and technology and industrial catalysis such as overseas performance and technological iteration are the core factors driving the relative income of TMT from May to June. Third, liquidity is also an important factor affecting the TMT market from May to June, such as the Fed's interest rate hike TMT performance is relatively weak in 2017 and May-June 2018. Fourth, the economy basically has a limited impact on the TMT market from May to June. (2) the economic and profit fundamentals and policies are the core influencing factors when the performance forecast disclosure period entered in July. First, the TMT market is relatively weak in July. Second, economic and earnings fundamentals are the core influencing factors: first, it is difficult for the TMT index to have excess returns in July when economic data is weak; second, the performance of the TMT sector is relatively strong when the performance forecast is improved or the growth rate is high. Third, the policy setting of the Politburo meeting in July has a certain impact on the TMT market.

At present, there may still be configuration opportunities for TMT in the short term. In retrospect, the current point of view is as follows: (1) the development of new quality productivity, catalysis of overseas industries and loose domestic liquidity make it possible for TMT to be allocated from May to June. First, in terms of policy and industrial catalysis, June may continue to appear: first, domestic policies, scientific and technological innovation and other related policies may continue to be introduced and landed before the third Plenary session of the Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee in July; secondly, in terms of industrial catalysis, the average profit growth rate of the seven overseas technology giants in the first quarter is as high as 78.Texasholdempokervideogame0.2%, iterative updates of overseas AI models, AI mobile phones, AI PC and other new products are likely to accelerate the landing. Second, keep it loose in terms of liquidity. (2) the expectation of economic repair and the possible rebound of the reported performance of TMT and the catalysis of science, technology and innovation policies make there are certain opportunities for the allocation of TMT in July. First, in terms of economic and profit fundamentals, the economy may continue to repair in July, and the reported performance of TMT may pick up somewhat. Second, in terms of policy, the July Politburo meeting and the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee may further highlight policies such as scientific and technological innovation.

The short-term adjustment is limited and the rebound is not over. (1) Molecular side: the expectation of economic continuation repair. First, high-frequency data show that real estate sales have rebounded. Second, after the issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds, the pick-up rate indicates that the start of infrastructure-related projects may accelerate. (2) liquidity: keep it loose. First, inflation and employment pressure in the United States have eased somewhat. Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are still hawk, there is a high probability that interest rates will be cut during the year. The US dollar is weaker, the RMB exchange rate is stronger under the expectation of domestic economic repair, and the impact of overseas restrictions on domestic easing has declined. Second, there is a sharp relaxation in real estate, domestic economic repair expectations and risk appetite may rise, and foreign capital and financing may continue to flow in in the short term. (3) risk preference: it is suppressed in the short term, but it is difficult to go down further. The military exercise around Taiwan suppresses market sentiment, but short-term relations between China and the United States and China and Europe have significantly improved, and it is difficult for geo-risk to continue to rise; policies such as real estate relaxation and the issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds still support risk appetite.

Continue to focus on TMT, core assets and pro-cyclicality in the short term. (1) short-term TMT and core assets are still the allocation direction: first, historical experience shows that science and technology growth and consumption are dominant in May-June, and technology growth, consumption and some cycles are dominant in May-July; currently it points to TMT, mass consumption and upstream cycle. Second, although it is suppressed by geo-risk concerns in the short term, real estate sales and economic repair are expected to pick up, foreign capital is likely to continue to inflow in the short term, and core assets favoured by foreign investors, such as food and beverage, Dianxin, home appliances and chemical industry, may still be allocated on the bargain. (2) continue to pay attention in the short term: first, policies and industrial trends upward communications (satellite Internet, low-altitude economy), computers (autopilot, data elements), electronics (semiconductors), media (AI applications); second, electricity (batteries, photovoltaic, wind power), home appliances, food and beverage, chemical industry, real estate industrial chain, etc., benefiting from economic restoration and foreign capital inflows.

Risk hints: historical experience may not be applicable in the future, policy changes exceed expectations, and economic repair falls short of expectations.