Tuesday Container Index (European Line) futures contracts collectively opened higher and lower. Among themLimitlesscasinofree100The main contract EC2406 closed down 3.Limitlesscasinofree100.52%, and the rest of the contracts have gone down. The latest SCFIS European settlement freight index is 2512.14 points, up 303.31 points from last week, 13.7% month-on-month, but there is a big gap with the futures price. Israel's evacuation order against Lafaxin and the ongoing attacks over the past two days may be a harbinger of a full-scale offensive, and the geopolitical situation has not improved, adding to market concerns and supporting futures prices. In addition, the Houthi said that they may expand their operations in the Indian Ocean, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the Red Sea crisis may continue until early next year. However, from the perspective of medium-and long-term fundamentals, the supply pressure of the shipping industry remains unabated, while the European economy lacks resilience, and high inflation and high interest rates will continue to drag down the recovery of the euro zone economy. In terms of exchange rates, the latest data show that non-farmers in the United States were weaker than expected in April, leading the market to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time in September, and the US dollar exchange rate is unlikely to fall rapidly. there is some support for container rates. To sum up, the geopolitical conflict heats up and the spot freight index rises sharply to support the freight rate, while the shipping companies also raise the price to some extent, but the fundamental situation remains unchanged, and the excessive basis aggravates the fluctuation of the futures price, and the difficulty of trading increases. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control.

Researcher: Cai Yuehui

Futures qualification number: F0251444

Futures investment consulting certificate number: 20013101

Assistant researcher: Li Qiurong

Futures qualification number: F03101823

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