News summary

[Minsheng Securities: Supply contraction remains the main tone. Coal prices may accelerate after mid-July] Securities Times e Company News, Minsheng Securities released a coal weekly report saying that port coal prices were running smoothly this week, affected by news that Shanxi may release night shift production. Market sentiment has weakened, but judging that domestic coalvisser3reel...

Newsletter text

[Minsheng Securities: Supply contraction remains the main tone. Coal prices may accelerate after mid-July] Securities Times e Company News, Minsheng Securities released a coal weekly report saying that port coal prices were running smoothly this week, affected by news that Shanxi may release night shift production. Market sentiment has weakened, but it is judged that the contraction of domestic coal production is still the main tone for the whole year, and the coal price center for the whole year may be expected to move upwards due to supply rigidity. In the short term, it is still in the off-season for traditional thermal coal demand, but the temperature in the north has increased significantly recently. It is expected that when summer approaches and temperatures are generally higher this year, the daily consumption of power plants will perform well. Demand for replenishment of warehouses will gradually start in late May during the peak summer, and non-electricity demand is also expected to benefit from favorable macro policies. Domestic coal prices have entered an upward channel. However, considering that it is currently in the peak season for water supply, hydropower output has increased and the power generation base was low in the same period last year, it is expected that the growth rate of hydropower power generation will be relatively high from now to mid-July, which will partially squeeze thermal power. The increase in coal prices will not change, but the increase may be limitedvisser3reel; After mid-July, the hydropower base will return to normal and combined with thermal power, coal prices are expected to accelerate. By the end of the year, the price of thermal coal is expected to reach 1200 yuan/ton.