Transferred from: Xinhua Finance

Xinhua Finance, Beijing, May 20th (Ma Mengwei) the CFETS RMB exchange rate index newly calculated by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center on May 17, 2024 is 99.Bgacrypto. 43Bgacrypto, down 0% by weekBgacrypto.67% BIS basket RMB exchange rate index reported 105.06BgacryptoThe RMB exchange rate index of the SDR basket was down 0.63% on a weekly basis to 94.28, down 0.37% on a weekly basis.

Last week (May 13-17), the US interest rate cut is expected to rise, the US dollar index fell and fell throughout the week. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly by about 0.04%, lagging behind among the major currencies. Specific data show that the onshore RMB rose 4 basis points against the dollar at 7.2242, the offshore RMB rose 7 basis points against the dollar at 7.2337, and the RMB depreciated 34 basis points against the dollar at 7.1045.

CICC said the renminbi rose slightly, although it was expected to improve. The dollar index and US bond yields fell last week, but the effort to stabilize the exchange rate has eased, and the short-end spread between China and the US has also widened. Under the combined force of improved external pressure and reduced efforts to stabilize the exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate recorded a small increase. Although efforts to stabilize the exchange rate have eased, the derivatives market also points to an improvement in the expectation of the RMB exchange rate.

On the face of the news: China Securities News published an article saying that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has fluctuated slightly recently. China's economy has continued to recover and become a strong support for the RMB exchange rate; at the same time, policy measures to stabilize the exchange rate will continue to be effective; in addition, the optimistic views of foreign investors on China's economy have further increased recently. RMB assets have become an important choice for foreign institutions to carry out global investment layout.

China Foreign Exchange Trading Center plans to add new crossover option portfolio click transaction varieties from May 20, 2024, the specific arrangements are as follows. Add the market-making click transaction variety of the cross option portfolio (Straddle) with the standard term of RMB against the US dollar and the strike price of forward parity (ATMF). Straddle consists of an European call option with a strike price of ATMF and an European put option. Straddle only supports volatility quotation, market makers quote according to the volume and volatility of single-pen options, and the volume of call and put options in the default portfolio is the same as volatility.

Fed Chairman Colin Powell said the Fed needs to be patient and wait for more evidence that high interest rates are curbing inflation, so it needs to keep interest rates high for longer. Powell reiterated that the Fed's next move is unlikely to be to raise interest rates, and that the Fed is more likely to keep policy rates at current levels.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June "ready to start". Several ECB governors, including Kazax, Valerua, Dekos and Centro, believe that the conditions for a rate cut in June are already in place. European Central Bank governing Council Karax said that unless there is a major economic accident, the ECB will take action.

Data: according to the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in April 2024, banks settled foreign exchange of 1.2336 trillion yuan and sold foreign exchange of 1.5036 trillion yuan. From January to April 2024, banks settled foreign exchange of 5.085 trillion yuan and sold foreign exchange of 5.5312 trillion yuan. In dollar terms, in April 2024, the bank settled foreign exchange of 173.7 billion US dollars and sold foreign exchange of 211.8 billion US dollars. From January to April 2024, the bank settled foreign exchange of 715.9 billion US dollars and sold foreign exchange of 778.8 billion US dollars.

China's cross-border capital flows were affected by multiple factors in April 2024, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Among them, the trend of foreign trade development is obvious, the cross-border surplus in goods trade remains relatively large, and continues to play a basic role in stabilizing cross-border capital flows. foreign investors actively allocated RMB assets, with foreign investors buying domestic bonds and stocks of 124.7 billion yuan and 45.1 billion yuan respectively in April.

Us CPI grew 3.4 per cent in April from a year earlier, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of 3.5 per cent; month-on-month growth of 0.3 per cent, with both expectations and previous values of 0.4 per cent. Core CPI fell to 3.6 per cent in April from a year earlier, the lowest since April 2021, while core CPI month-on-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent in March, the first decline in six months and in line with market expectations.

Internationalization of the yuan: the yuan's share of foreign exchange transactions in Russia rose to an all-time high of 53.4% in April from 53% in March, according to the central bank of Russia.

This week, the United States will release economic data such as May Markit PMI, April durable goods orders and new home sales. CICC believes that US economic data may maintain a moderate and weakening trend, while China needs to pay attention to whether there is more support for the introduction of policies in areas such as real estate, the market is expected to continue to improve in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate may be moderately strong.

Editor: Wang Xirui