News summary

The company announced that it will increase the output of mineral copper, gold and other products by 2028playblackjack, copper and gold growth rate of 9%playblackjack, lithium growth rate reached 147%, holds an overweight rating, and pays attention to copper and gold price trends and project progress risks.

Newsletter text

[Company announces mineral output growth plan in the next five years]

A company released its mineral product production growth plan from 2024 to 2028 on the evening of May 16, with the goal of advancing economic indicators for 2030 to 2028.

According to the latest plan, mineral copper output in 2028 is expected to be between 1.5 million and 1.6 million tons, mineral gold output between 100 and 110 tons, mineral zinc/lead between 550,000 and 600,000 tons, mineral silver between 600 and 700 tons, lithium (LCE) between 250,000 and 300,000 tons, and mineral molybdenum 2playblackjack.5-3playblackjack.50,000 tons. The setting of these target output outputs reflects the compound growth rates of mineral copper, gold, zinc/lead, silver, lithium and molybdenum output from 2023 to 2028 of 9%, 9%, 4%, 10%, 147% and 30%, respectively.

Compared with the estimated output announced in 2023, the planned mineral copper output in 2025 has been increased by 50,000 tons, while mineral gold output has been reduced by 5 tons, zinc (lead) has increased by 20,000 tons, and mineral silver has increased by 50 tons. Lithium has been reduced by 20,000 tons, and mineral molybdenum has been reduced by 6,000 tons.

Looking back on history, since 2014, the company has performed excellent in completing its mineral product production planning. Data shows that the average completion rate of the production plans of major mineral products disclosed by the company is 104%, gold 96%, zinc (lead) 96%, lithium 97%, silver 112%, molybdenum 135%, and iron 111%. It is noteworthy that the company is also the only company among the top 10 copper companies in the world whose mineral copper output has exceeded the output guidance for five consecutive years.

Regarding the future trend of copper and gold prices, some views believe that copper prices are expected to rise. Especially after analyzing from the perspective of cost and net present value, copper prices are expected to rise to US$12,000 - 14,000/ton to promote potential supply growth. At the same time, gold prices are also optimistic, especially after the release of April CPI data in the United States, and the market expects interest rate cuts to begin in September. Before the interest rate cut, gold and gold stocks usually have excess returns.

In terms of profit forecast, considering the upward trend of copper and gold prices, the company's parent net profit forecast from 2024 to 2026 has been raised to 29.2 billion yuan, 35.1 billion yuan and 42.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 20% and 21%. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16 times, 14 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the company's "overweight" rating.

Although the outlook is optimistic, it is necessary to pay attention to the downside risks of copper and gold prices, as well as the risks that project construction and overseas operations may face.