Source: China Fund Daily

Mo Lin, reporter of China Fund News.

At a time when the price of gold is once again approaching the previous high and silver has reached a new high in nearly a decade, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange have sold out one after another!

After trading on May 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued an announcement that since the closing and settlement on Thursday, May 23, 2024, the margin ratio and the limit of the rise and fall of the trading margin have been adjusted as follows: gold and silver futures contractsTronblockchaingamesThe limit of the rise and fall of the limit was adjusted to 10%, the margin ratio of hedging transactions was increased to 11%, and the margin ratio of speculative transactions was increased to 12%.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange also said that in the event of the provisions of Article 12 of the measures for risk Control and Management of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, it will be adjusted on the basis of the above-mentioned margin ratio and the limit of rise and fall.

A number of industry insiders interviewed said that the prices of gold and silver have risen sharply in recent days. On May 21, the Shanghai silver market rose by more than 10%, a new high in nearly a decade. As the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, both prices are expected to continue to break through.

Guangfa Futures also pointed out that the current tactical investor capital inflows accelerated, inventory on the low side superimposed rising inertia, precious metals may come out of a bull market similar to the early 2011.

Based on this, adjusting the margin ratio and the rise and fall limit of multiple contracts is also to reduce the risk of investors in the futures market. In response to the aggravation of market fluctuations, the last session promptly implemented measures such as trading limits, ups and downs, and margin adjustment for precious metal varieties, and timely strengthened risk control measures, which helped to prevent the risk of sharp price fluctuations and guide all parties to trade rationally and prudently. it is of great benefit to promote the long-term and healthy development of varieties.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange made a move yesterday.

After trading on May 20, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that the relevant provisions of the "measures for risk Control and Management of the Shanghai Gold Exchange" had adjusted the margin ratio and the limit for the trading of gold and silver extended contracts.

Since the close of liquidation on Tuesday, May 21, 2024, the margin ratio for contracts such as Au, mAu, Au, Au, T+N2, NYAuTN06 and NYAuTN12 has been adjusted from 9 per cent to 10 per cent, the margin limit for the next trading day has been adjusted from 8 per cent to 9 per cent, and the margin ratio for Tender contracts has been adjusted from 12 per cent to 13 per cent, and from 11 per cent to 12 per cent from the next trading day.

According to the reporter's statistics, since the beginning of this year, in order to alleviate the overheated sentiment in the market, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have repeatedly stepped in to adjust the trading margin ratio, the limit of rise and fall, and trading fees for gold and other related varieties.

The most recent one was in April this year. On April 12, the Shanghai Gold Exchange took the lead in adjusting the margin ratio and the limit board for gold extended contract trading as well as the margin for performance-guaranteed inquiry contracts. Then, on April 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice saying that from the close of trading on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, the limit of gold and silver futures contracts would be adjusted from 6% and 7% to 8%. The margin ratio of hedging trading was adjusted from 7% and 8% to 9%, and the margin ratio of speculative trading was adjusted from 8% and 9% to 10%.

The reporter noticed that on the second day of the announcement (April 15), the Shanghai gold market hit an all-time high of 590.TronblockchaingamesIt falls back after .65 yuan / g. After the adjustment announced last week, Shanghai gold fell nearly 7% at one time.

It is worth noting that on May 21, Shanghai gold and silver rose sharply and fell again. It remains to be seen whether the trend of late April will be replicated in the future.

How can I get to the future of precious metals?

Brokerage institutions have given different views on the future trend of the precious metals market.

Societe Generale Securities pointed out that at present, the rise in gold prices is not only affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts, but more importantly, under the background of challenges to the monetary credit system centered on the US dollar, the demand for gold as a safe asset continues to rise, and central banks continue to buy gold to push up the price of gold. As a result, de-dollarization and risk aversion have supported gold's continued upward trend.

Minsheng Securities said that the global silver market is affected by both financial and industrial attributes, as the Fed rate hike cycle ends and enters the interest rate cut cycle, the decline in interest rates is expected to boost precious metals prices, silver is expected to follow gold. At the same time, signs of recovery in domestic and foreign manufacturing PMI data will strengthen the industrial demand for silver. If overseas economies start to cut interest rates, the gold-to-silver ratio could fall, pushing silver into a bull market.

Debang Securities believes that factors such as the continued increase in gold holdings by global central banks and the increased probability of interest rate cuts in the United States will boost gold demand and prices. Precious metal prices have certain catalytic factors in the short -, medium-and long-term dimensions, and are optimistic about the future price trend of precious metals such as gold and silver.

Citic CCIC points out that the sharp upside of precious metals may be out of the reins of reason, but irrational emotions are already part of the market, and sentiment is also one of the important factors affecting prices. Investors need to look at the market rationally and avoid blindly following the trend.