News summary

[CITIC Construction Investment: Strategically optimistic about A-shares] Securities Times News, CITIC Construction Investment's latest strategy report pointed out that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations continue to move backward, exchange rate pressure is rising, China issued special treasury bonds, but the early market3pokerExpectations of RRR cuts and interest rates have not been fulfilled, and net investment has not been realized.3poker.3poker..

Newsletter text

[CITIC Construction Investment: Strategically optimistic about A-shares] Securities Times News, CITIC Construction Investment's latest strategy report pointed out that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations have continued to move backward, exchange rate pressure has increased, and China has issued special treasury bonds, but the market's early expectations of reducing RRR rates have not been fulfilled, and net investment has not occurred. The implementation of new rules on reducing A-share holdings, and the recent restart of IPO reviews, broad-based ETFs showed outflows and the margin of micro-liquidity shrank. The export boom is still there, and the recovery of domestic demand remains to be seen. Strategically, we can still be optimistic about A-shares, and tactically, we should focus on defense in the short term and wait patiently. The recent market attempt to switch from dividends + exports to pro-cyclical domestic demand mainly focuses on two clues: one is the price increase chain and the other is the real estate chain. However, there are currently differences in sustainability and space. On the one hand, against the background of questionable demand support, the price fluctuations of upstream resource products have intensified, and the momentum for price increases in the midstream is gradually weakening.3poker; On the other hand, the fundamentals of the real estate chain have improved after the implementation of the policy and further policy increases remain to be seen. Last week, the year-on-year decline in new home sales area in 30 cities did not show a significant narrowing. This switching transaction has moved from expected repair to fundamental pricing stage, and from the perspective of short-term demand, it is difficult to continue. From the perspective of medium-term allocation, before the overall profit forecast is significantly revised upwards and the new industrial cycle breaks out, it is advisable to continue to adhere to the dividend bottom allocation, while focusing on industries with independent fundamental logic, such as electricity, breeding, and nonferrous metals. Proofread by: Zhu Tianting